Everyday Homicides in Mexico Drop Over a Third In the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Government Figures

The average figure of daily killings per month in Mexico has fallen by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per fresh government figures. However, public safety analysts have warned that murder data could fail to point to better countrywide stability.

Notable Reduction in Per-Day Averages

There was an average of close to 55 killings a day in November as opposed to roughly 87 when the President assumed the presidential office in September. This information was delivered by the director of the nation's national safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that have been recorded over these past months is remarkably notable,” the President said, noting that the previous month the least figure of homicides were recorded for any single November in the past 10 years.

Recent Context and Official Strategy

Violent drug cartel infighting, coupled with the administration's heavily military operations to confront the drug gangs, have made Mexico’s murder numbers escalate in recent times. The figure reached a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the nation's official data agency.

That gave Mexico a homicide figure more than four times greater than the US. However, murders have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. The President has credited her public safety approach for an apparently sharper drop in homicides this year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the President said: “We have a plan, we have tracking of the plan, and there is detailed monitoring locality by locality in certain cases. The plan works. And we have to keep working at it daily.”

The central pillars of Sheinbaum’s security strategy involve:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s federal guard.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigative efforts.
• Increased collaboration between various authorities.

Analyst Warnings and Data Concerns

Nevertheless, security researchers cautioned that focusing solely on homicide data to paint a picture of peace was misleading. This is particularly true considering the uptick in other criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“This would be very good information if this was a drop, but I think we can’t just look at the homicide numbers and conclude: ‘Well then, good,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican cartels. “I would be guardedly hopeful.”

According to the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders in total declined by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year relative to the same timeframe the previous year. Yet, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in some states have risen by up to 200%.

“Data on homicides is no longer useful for gauging the reality of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the ability or the inclination to properly identify and categorize bodies. Second, organized [criminals] … have the ability to mask violence through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on month-to-month means of everyday killings was additionally problematic because it might mask periods when there were particularly high levels of killings.

“Employing the daily mean makes surges of violence less visible,” he said.

Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

An area where the administration can highlight the success of its safety plan is on detentions and seizures. Nearly 40,000 individuals were arrested between October 2024 and this past November for high-impact offenses, per official data. Over 20,000 weapons were seized and 311 tons of narcotics confiscated.

“The former US president can't accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s very politically profitable,” said Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Frustration

Yet despite these efforts, Mexico remains plagued by high bloodshed, with several regions in the grip of cartel-driven conflict. In the previous month there was a high-profile murder of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders murdered in the last 12 months.

A short time after, thousands of protesters demonstrated in Mexico City and throughout the nation to express their anger at graft and cartel violence.

“The government presents [data] in a manner to create a narrative of security. Politically it’s highly successful, socially it’s extremely questionable,” the analyst said.